Coronavirus forecast: Up to 3,200 deaths in Finland

The best and worse case scenarious for the spread of Covid-19 in Finland have been mapped out by researchers at universities in Turku and Tampere.

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File picture showing interior of hospital / Credit; iStock

The coronavirus outbreak in Finland could cause up to 3,200 in the worst case scenario.

That’s the conclusions in a new report commissioned by the Government from researchers at the Universities of Turku and Tampere, and the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare THL.

The estimate is based on an assumption of the virus spreading widely in Finland infecting up to 60% of the population; up to 32,000 people needing hospital treatment; as many as 8,000 in intesive care and with with 0.1% of the total number of people infected ultimately dying from Covid-19.

The new scenarios drawn up by researchers all paint a picture of the epidemic lasting several months, and infecting a significant number of people in Finland.

At the other end of the scale – the best case scenario – 20% of Finns would be infected; between 4,000 and 10,000 would need hospital treatment and 500 to 1,000 would die, according to researchers.

The spread of the virus has already put a strain on the healthcare system with a shortage of Covid-19 testing kits and thousands of calls to helplines, and with the government giving local authorities permission to waive their healthcare targets during the coronavirus crisis.

There’s a further strain on the system anticipated, if more healthcare workers get sick or have to self-quarantine at home when family members become sick, leading to staff shortages in hospitals and local health centres.